Buy-Borrow-Die Stress Tester

Maybank holdings · Public Bank Share Margin Facility (SMF)

LSR formula per PB PDS Ver 03/2026 — baseline 60%, margin call 70%, force-sell 80%
Result · hold (no restart)
Run the simulation to see when LSR hits 60%.
Year LSR hits 60%
months from start
Net equity at that point
Shares value − Loan
Max monthly cash-out
In nominal RM at trigger month

Year-by-year breakdown + crash stress per year

Right side: if -40% crash hits THAT year
Year Asset (Maybank) Margin loan Net equity Monthly cash-out LSR ↓ if -40% crash this year ↓
Post-crash LSR Status Cash to avoid margin call

♻️ Restart Strategy

Sell-all → repay loan → re-lever to initial LSR, each time LSR hits 60%

Instead of just holding when LSR hits 60%, you liquidate everything, clear the margin loan, and restart the whole buy-borrow-die with your remaining net equity as fresh capital at the same initial LSR. Your monthly cash-out keeps growing with inflation across the whole timeline (living costs don't reset). Question: does equity compound upward, or grind down to zero?

Run the simulation.
Equity hits zero?
Restart cycles in 60y
Equity at last restart
Restart # At year (timeline) Cycle length Capital at start Net equity at next trigger Δ vs prev restart Cash-out at trigger

Model assumptions & caveats

  • Monthly resolution. Stock price compounds at CAGR/12; interest compounds monthly on outstanding loan.
  • At t=0 only: simulator borrows margin and buys extra Maybank to reach the Initial LSR. After that, leverage is left alone.
  • Each month: LSR drifts naturally — stock appreciation pushes it down, cashout shortfall pushes it up. No automatic rebalancing.
  • When dividend < cash-out + interest, the shortfall is borrowed from margin (loan↑).
  • When dividend > cash-out + interest, surplus reinvests into Maybank (cash purchase, no new leverage).
  • Bank's Share Value (BSV) is assumed = market value (no haircut). Real Maybank haircut is typically 5–10%.
  • Simulation horizon: 60 years. Stops early if net equity ≤ 0.
  • Restart strategy assumptions: assumes you sell ALL shares at the prevailing (non-crashed) price, fully repay the loan, and immediately re-buy at the same price — ignoring brokerage, stamp duty, bid-ask spread, and any market-timing gap. It also assumes the 60% trigger is reached in calm markets, not during the crash scenarios shown in the table on the right. If the 60% is hit because of a crash, selling locks in the loss and the picture is far worse.
  • Tax not modelled. (Malaysian individuals generally pay no capital gains tax on shares, but each liquidate-and-rebuy still incurs brokerage + stamp duty in reality.)